Exclusive: Jerusalem extremism analyst who predicted Jan 6 riots talks to WION

The United States mourned the 1st anniversary of the 2021 January 6 Capitol riots on Thursday. 

Videos from January 6, 2021, show the violence committed in the former president's name. There are videos showing attackers beating security officers with iron bars and clubs, and a policeman is crushed and howling in pain in a doorway.

A crowd of protesters clad in assault gear call for the vice president Mike Pence to be hanged, while Democratic and Republican legislators flee. During the riot, a woman was also shot in the Capitol hall and killed. 

Also read | Trump retaliates against Biden's Capitol riot anniversary speech, calls it 'political theatre'

America was stunned by the hours-long assault, and so was much of the world that was used to seeing the United States as a model of stable democracy.

However, there was one man who had predicted this "insurrection" weeks in advance. A political analyst from Jerusalem had predicted the riots two weeks before they happened. Extremism analyst, Arieh Kovler had predicted that armed militias would try to storm the Capitol in January. 

Kovler had made this prediction on Twitter. 

In his tweet, he wrote "On January 6, armed Trumpist militias will be rallying in DC, at Trump's orders. It's highly likely that they'll try to storm the Capitol after it certifies Joe Biden's win. I don't think this has sunk in yet."

WION's correspondent Jodie Cohen had an exclusive conversation with the author of this tweet. We asked Kovler to explain how he foresaw the Capitol insurrection. 

According to him, the prediction was based on his observation of events from before December 2020. He said that there was a huge number of Trump supporters, Republicans who thought there was zero chance they could lose. 

"Whenever they saw any evidence that Joe Biden was in the lead, a poll...any kind of research they just didn't believe it. They said it was all fake and of course, they were supported in this by Trump, who's telling them the whole country is on their side, and that they're going to win 40 states. As elections came closer and closer they became more sure and so on the day of the election when it became within a day or two pretty clear that Joe Biden had won and had won a decent number of electoral seats, they didn't change that view."

Also read | In his speech on the anniversary of Capitol riots, Biden deems Trump as a 'defeated former President'

Interestingly, Donald Trump echoed the same sentiment, telling his most devoted supporters that he was still going to win, and he would prove it any day now. His followers believed he had a plan and that he would return to the office any day now, proving the election was a fraud. 

"And as time went on the last possible day they could carry on believing that was the day Congress would confirm Joe Biden was the winner, January 6th. Then when Trump himself took to Twitter about three weeks before Jan 6 and said come to Washington DC for a big rally, it was pretty clear to me that it's only gonna go one way," explains Kovler.

 "All of these people...thousands...tens of thousands..you could see them beginning to organise...carpool...take time off of work...were gonna come to Washington DC, thinking they're gonna see Trump's victory. And when they realised that's not gonna happen, they were gonna be really angry," he concluded.

Watch | Political analysts from Jerusalem had predicted the Capitol riots two weeks before they happened

During his speech on the "insurrection's" anniversary, President Joe Biden slammed Donald Trump for his "lies" and attempt to discredit the results of the 2020 election, and vowed not to let anyone put a "dagger at the throat of democracy." 

In a ceremony commemorating the tragedy, members of Congress, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, paid tribute to police officers and officials who defended the US Capitol during a deadly attack by supporters of the former president.