Under PM Modi, India 'more likely' to respond with force to Pakistani provocation: US intelligence report

The United States annual intelligence report has said that India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is "more likely" to respond with force to Pakistani provocation. 

The annual threat assessment of the US intelligence community report 2021 said, "Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations."

In the past, in the backdrop of terror attacks like Pulwama in February of 2019, India responded by "Balakot airstrikes" deep inside Pakistani territory. Indian Air force planes struck terror camps in the vicinity of Balakot town in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. In 2016, after the Uri attacks, Indian forces conducted surgical strikes on terror launch pads in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

Highlighting that "tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan remain a concern for the world", the US intel report released by the Director of National Intelligence pointed out, "although a general war between India and Pakistan is unlikely, crises between the two are likely to become more intense, risking an escalatory cycle."

India has repeatedly asked Pakistan to take action against terror groups under its territories. It has raised the issue at many multilateral forums such as United Nations.

The report also mentioned the ongoing situation between India and China, pointing out, "China-India border tensions remain high, despite some force pullbacks this year."

The year 2020 was the worst in decades for India-China ties due to aggressive action by Chinese forces that killed 20 Indian soldiers in Galwan, at thLline of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh.

The report said, "China’s occupation since May 2020 of contested border areas is the most serious escalation in decades and led to the first lethal border clash between the two countries since 1975." February saw de-escalation at Pangong lake with both sides pulling back forces and equipment but no movement is seen by Chinese forces at areas like Hot Springs, Depsang, and Gogra. 

The report warned, "Interstate conflicts will also flare, ranging from border sparrings, such as that between China and India, to potentially more sustained violent confrontations."