Opinion: Will the Modi government repeat 2014 victory in 2019?

The political climate in the country is abuzz with a speculation and question mark whether the Modi government would repeat its performance of 2014 or retain the power in a coalition framework. Political pundits are indicating the latter. However, there is also an emerging point of view that the united opposition led by Congress may also come in power.

It is true that predicting the election scenario is more difficult in the Indian political setting where national mood keeps shifting at a rapid pace. Notwithstanding the peculiarity of Indian election scenario, however, certain tentative observation can be made about 2019 election.

From my point of view PM Modi holds a good chance to retain the power without any help of coalition partners on the following grounds:

1. There is a “TINA Factor.” The entire opposition is suffering from the acute crisis of political leadership. PM Modi and his party, BJP, is certainly to be benefitted from the leaderless opposition.

2.  Its true that many grandeur promises PM Modi made during the 2014 elections remain unfulfilled; but the fact remains that unlike the previous government, Modi government is being seen by the people as hardworking and trying to bring prosperity to the nation.

3.  Almost 4 and half years of PM Modi’s leadership has been relatively free of any corruption charges.

4. PM Modi continues to have good appeal amongst the youth segment of Indian society as he continues to champion the vast aspirations of the youth. It is likely that the positive inclination of youth towards PM Modi,  will tilt the balance of electoral fortune in BJP's favour.

5. PM Modi is being perceived as the most decisive leader our country has seen in the recent years. This has led to a good section of Indian society reposing a faith in his leadership irrespective of the problem of governance.

6. Despite the constant effort of opposition to project Modi as anti-minority, the same is unlikely to affect the electoral chances of Modi government due to increasing politics of reverse majoritarian Hindu mobilisation against the possible minority mobilisation. Moreover, due to this progressive agenda related to the abolition of Triple Talaq and Uniform Civil Code, a section of Muslim women and men are likely to vote for him and his party.

7. Even though the opposition has tried very hard to prove a failure of  PM Modi’s foreign policy and his global visits the fact remains that it has generated a hope among people that he is genuinely trying to attract foreign investments to the country. 

Finally, the organisational capacity of BJP in combination with all other above mentioned factors will likely push the BJP in power again.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)