India to be hit by fourth Covid wave in June, this is what a study says

After being severely affected by the Omicron variant, cases in India are finally on a downhill. However, as per a recent study by IIT Kanpur, this will not be the case for a long time. 

A team of scientists from IIT Kanpur have said that India will witness a new Covid wave in June. The peak may start around June 22 and will peak from mid to late August.

The study is yet-to-be peer-reviewed. 

Led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur’s mathematics department, the study is based on the data on Zimbabwe. It has been published as a pre-print in MedRxiv.

The scientists have claimed that there is a fair chance that a new variant of this virus may have an intense impact on the findings.

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The authors of the study wrote, "The data indicates that the fourth wave of Covid-19 in India will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020. Therefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022, and ends on October 24, 2022."

“Apart from this fact, the effect of vaccinations — first, second or booster dosage may also play a significant role on the possibility of infection, degree of infection and various issues related to the fourth wave,” they further claimed.

The researchers also highlighted that many countries have already witnessed the third wave of Covid. Also, a few countries like South Africa and Zimbabwe have started to face the fourth and higher waves of the pandemic.

“The third wave of Covid-19 was predicted for India using the data of Zimbabwe, and when the third wave in India is finishing, it is now clear that the forecast was correct,” the authors added.

(With inputs from agencies)