COVID-19: Rise and fall in cases is common when entering to endemic phase

India is currently experiencing an increase in the number of Covid cases and scientists warned on Friday (June 24) that a rise and fall in the number of instances is a frequent phenomenon when an infectious disease transits from a pandemic to an endemic phase. The scientists noted that the sudden increase in the number is caused by not using face protection, increased travel and social engagement and low uptake in Covid vaccines. Since June 10, there has been an increase in weekly cases reported in states like Maharashtra, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Telangana and Punjab, reported by PTI.

According to Dr Sanjay Rai, a leading epidemiologist at AIIMS, SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus that has undergone over 1,000 changes despite the fact there are only five types of variants.

He said, “India witnessed a very devastating second wave of Covid infections last year which was very unfortunate. But it has led to development of a community level natural immunity against SARS-CoV-2. Global evidence show that natural infection provides better and longer protection against COVID-19. Also, there has been a high vaccination coverage. Hence, a severe wave in the future is unlikely until a new mutant variant is capable of invading the existing natural immunity and causing severe disease.”

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Another expert Dr Chandrakant Lahariya said that SARS-CoV-2 is still prevalent. In a conversation with PTI he said, “Therefore, a rise and fall in the number of infections from time to time is very much expected because that is how infectious and respiratory disease behave. Which is why every rise in cases is not a reason of concern or worry.”

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He further said that the majority of people in all age group categories are believed to have obtained immunity following the infection. Therefore, he said, people have evolved a hybrid immunity that protects people from later infections.

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As per official sources, 51 districts in India, including 12 in Kerala, 7 in Mizoram and 5 each in Maharashtra and Assam are reporting a weekly infection positivity rate of over 10 per cent. 

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(With inputs from agencies)